Bastrop County Republican Party

The Political Chess Game

(Apologies for a very lengthy blog post. The issue is complex.)

Checkmate I’ve always said that politics is the world’s largest chess game. Anyone good at it has to think multiple moves ahead and has to analyze a variety of actions that could be taken by others. And, it requires understanding the law, policies and rules.

It’s the strategy of politics that I find incredibly fascinating.

Let’s take, for example, the issue of “No Dem Chairs”. The grassroots have been trying to stop Texas House Speakers from handing committee gavels to the Democrats for several sessions. Why would a Republican Speaker do that? After all, Republicans have a sizable majority.

Remember the old “smoke filled room”? Well, the only difference is that today there’s no smoke. Smoking not allowed. But the deals still are cut and not in public. Some deals are to bring members to a certain side of an issue. Some deals are to put opponents in an untenable position: damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Some deals are a win-win. Some deals are a win-lose.

Think about the last CR in Washington. You know, that 1500 page spending bill that caused voters to go nuts. A laundry list of added spending was slipped in, hoping voters wouldn’t notice. A day later, it was 116 pages with things like Congressional salary increases removed. People were still unhappy and calling their legislators. A day later, after significant negotiations, it was finally passed.

Chess Move #1: The caucus

On December 7, the Texas House Republican Caucus met to select its candidate for House Speaker. There were two candidates: David Cook & Dustin Burrows.

There are rules about what percentage of the caucus a candidate must receive on each ballot: 75% on ballots 1 and 2; 60% on ballot 3. No one got 75% on the first two ballots and then 26 members of the Caucus walked out, including Bastrop County’s HD17 Rep Stan Gerdes. David Cook won on the third ballot.

“Cook clinched the GOP endorsement 48-14 during the voting’s third round, but over a dozen Burrow loyalists abstained from the vote by walking out of the chamber. While caucus rules mandate that all 88 House Republicans support the party’s nominee during January’s official speaker vote — support that would push Cook well over the 76 vote threshold to secure the Speaker seat — Burrows has maintained that a pieced-together coalition of rogue Republicans and Democrats will be enough to ensure his victory.”
Dallas Observer, December 9, 2023

Chess Move #2: implementing “no dem chairs”

Speaker Candidate David Cook has agreed to “No Dem Chairs”. Speaker Candidate Dustin Burrows has not. He says he’ll leave it to the entire House.

It’s important to know that the Speaker appoints the committee chairs. Thus Speaker of the Texas House is a very powerful position. And, as such, putting the issue of “No Dem Chairs” to the entire House, in my opinion, is abdicating the Speaker’s most important responsibility for the success or failure of GOP Legislative Priorities.

Punt. Leave it to others to make the decision.

Chess Move #3: the formal speaker vote

The formal vote for Speaker is on January 14, day one of the 89th Texas Legislative Session. Republican House members are expected to vote for the Caucus choice. Those are the rules. If all Republican legislators stick together and follow the rules, that would give David Cook the win. A David Cook Speakership would give grassroots Republicans the win. “No Dem Chairs” would finally be a reality in Texas.

But not so fast……

Remember those 26 “walk-outs”? If they break Party caucus rules and don’t vote for David Cook, Dustin Burrows (who has probably by now negotiated all or a majority of Democrat votes) will likely be the Texas House Speaker. The GOP/Dem split is 88/62. It takes 76 votes to become Speaker.

Simple math: 76-62=14
So if 14 Republicans vote with all the Democrats, Burrows is Speaker.
Which 14 Republicans bill break the rules?
Will Bastrop County’s HD17 Rep Stan Gerdes be one of them?

Chess Move #4: the rules package

Chess board Let’s say Burrows wins. When he takes the gavel, how will he put his opponents in their place? How will he show his power to those in the Republican Caucus who didn’t vote for him. Ahhhh…… the Rules Packages.

The day after the vote for Speaker, when all the grassroots Republicans have gone home, the Texas House will vote on both Housekeeping and Permanent Rules packages.

Rules are critical to the function of the Texas House and they are extensive. In 2023, the House Rules, HB4 and amendments, were 199+ pages…. a lot of items with which to negotiate. Plenty of places for “poison pills”.

What is a “poison pill”? A “poison pill” strategy is used in business to prevent a hostile takeover. In politics, it’s used to force opponents into a no-win voting dilemma.

This happens when opponents of a bill put something in it that makes it impossible for supporters of the main topic of that same bill, to vote for it. The bill could contain language that supporters have wanted for years. So what do they do? Vote for that which they’ve worked so hard to accomplish and, in the process, vote for something they adamantly oppose? (This is exactly why conservative Republicans in Washington are pushing so hard for “one subject” bills.)

No matter how they vote, their opponents will use it against them. They’ll be accused of voting against the very thing they’ve worked hard for. Or, they’ll be accused of voting for the thing they adamantly oppose. (So much for not using public resources for political purposes. See Chess Move #5.)

This happens all the time in politics. It’s a common strategy to get items, unfavorable to the majority, passed by the minority. Stick the unacceptable thing into a bill the majority desperately wants passed. Think Ukraine funding.

So, back to the Burrows Permanent Rules Package.

It may contain language that, if passed, will result in “No Dem Chairs”. But it may also contain “poison pill” language that is unacceptable to most conservative Republicans.

Chess move #4 forces members in support of “No Dem Chairs” to vote for the “poison pill” as well. Dems get what they were promised in the non-smoke filled room and Republicans get “No Dem Chairs”.

OR, conservative Republicans vote against the “poison pill” and in the process, also kill the “No Dem Chairs” provision.

From my experience, when that happens, most of the public won’t understand and will just hear (or see in campaign literature) how Rep So-and-so voted against “No Dem Chairs”. And, those members who put Burrows in as Speaker will claim they voted for “No Dem Chairs” but alas, conservative Republicans killed it.

Chess Move #5: procedural death

In the 2023 Legislative Session, Dade Phelan was elected Texas House Speaker. After multiple attempts to get “No Dem Chairs” included in the Rules package, it was killed through procedural moves. The premise used to kill “No Dem Chairs” was that having chairs from one political party would violate a rule they had just adopted stating that House resources could not be used for political purposes. (FYI, this was a new Housekeeping rule in 2023 leading one to wonder if it was added for just this purpose.)

Proposed rule: “If, at the time the speaker announces the membership of committees, the members of one political party constitute a majority of the membership of the house, the speaker shall designate a member of that party to serve as chair of each committee.”

Result: The above Amendment to the rules (House Journal, January 11, 2023 page 139) was killed by a point of order that stated “The Housekeeping Resolution adopted by the House earlier today codified the constitutional rule that House resources may be used only for public purposes and may not be used for political purposes.”

They said that ensuring a Committee Chair was from the majority party was the same as using “House resources […] for political purposes.” Odd, the United States Congress operates with the chair of each committee from the majority party and they have a similar, very stringent rule about using public resources for political purposes.

the next chess move

Bastrop County’s HD17 Rep Stan Gerdes was one of the 26 who walked out of the Republican Caucus. He refuses to publicly state his support for David Cook or answer whether he’ll break the Caucus rules and vote for Burrows. He has, though, posted on Facebook on January 5, “I’ll be voting to ban Dem chairs.”

If that’s the case, it would seem he plans to break Caucus rules. (Shame on him.) And, then, knowing what happened in 2023, he can confidently vote for “No Dem Chairs” while watch it go down in flames. One week from now, we’ll know his next move.

Thin Skinned

Politics is not for the faint-of-heart. Anyone who has run for office, or served in office, knows that. We’re all very opinionated and most of us, passionately so. Those who don’t agree with their representatives often come out with guns blazing (not literally, just verbally). It’s just the way it is. The elected official can engage in the gun-fire with nasty retorts, or step back and invite discussion. What the elected official cannot be is thin-skinned and defensive.

Sadly, our current House member, Stan Gerdes, has demonstrated that he is both thin-skinned and defensive. In 2022, he was asked at multiple GOP meetings whether he supported Dems as committee chairs in the Texas House. Notwithstanding Republicans being strongly in the majority, he supported Dem chairs (video at 6:13). Those of us who worked hard to get Republicans elected felt betrayed. And, we told him so.

In 2024, we’ve again said “No Dem Chairs” and once again, he is supporting a House Speaker who lost the Republican Caucus vote and who will appoint Dem chairs.

Republican committee chairs are critical to passing TexasGOP legislative priority bills. This is important enough that the TexasGOP sent a mailer to Bastrop County Republicans asking them to call Gerdes’ office and “tell him to oppose Dustin Burrows and support the Texas House GOP Caucus Nominee David Cook!”

Then, the Bastrop County GOP passed a resolution calling “on Representative Stan Gerdes to publicly commit to supporting the Texas House Republican Caucus nominee in accordance with the Caucus vote and with the Republican Party of Texas Platform”. Seems reasonable.

That resolution also explained that:

“A vote against the Texas House Republican Caucus nominee shall be considered a censurable act”; and
“subversive tactics such as denying a quorum or participating (sic) in absenteeism that causes a quorum to come into question […] shall be considered a censurable act”; and
“a vote for a House Speaker secret floor ballot vote, will be interpreted as an attempt to hide a vote with Democrats who want Democrat Chairs […] and shall be considered a censurable act”; and
“a vote […] for any other candidate who has not pledged publicly, prior to the floor vote, to comply with the Legislative Priorities of “No Democrat Chairs” shall constitute a censurable act.”

Stan Gerdes was not censured. The elected Republican precinct chairs simply expressed their opinions and what they expected from their Republican House member.

Precinct chairs are elected to be the voice of the Republican Party. Gerdes was elected to represent House District 17. These are very different constituencies.

Gerdes can stick to his position supporting Democrat chairs and do what he believes is in the best interest of his constituents. But, as with every decision an elected official makes, there are consequences to those decisions. And, the Bastrop County Republican Party has made clear what those consequences will be. Seems reasonable.

Rather than throw verbal bombs on Facebook at Republican Party leadership, a mature, seasoned elected official would either invite precinct chairs to a meeting or personally call each one, building bridges. He would not whine because he wasn’t invited to the meeting where the resolution was passed. He would not call candidates who ran against him three years ago “vengeful”. He wouldn’t worry about a candidate that spent under $20,000 in a campaign cycle when he, himself, spent over half a million. He would not call the Republican Chair a liar. He would not send threatening texts. He would not make unfounded accusations and name-call publicly on social media.

I sure as heck hope this isn’t the way he treats his fellow legislators when they disagree with him. And, if, as I hear repeatedly, Stan Gerdes wants to run for Congress or some other higher office, he needs to get thicker skin. He needs to immediately start building bridges not burning them down.

Stuck between a rock and a hard place

HD-17 House member Stan Gerdes has been a constant supporter of former House Speaker Dade Phelan and now his think-alike Dustin Burrows. Both either got, or are attempting to get, elected as House Speaker by courting a majority Democrat vote.

Republicans will control the Texas House with 88 of 150 members. Last session, the Paxton-impeachers (including Gerdes) and those who worked to stall Republican legislative priorities had the Speakership. The Phelan Speakership was obtained with Democrat votes in a House with a similar party split: 86R, 64D.

Burrows, with Gerdes support, seeks to do the same thing in 2025. If he can get those 64 Dems to back him, he only needs 12 Republicans to win the Speakership. But, by rule, Republicans are committed to vote for the Caucus choice. If they don’t, what a slap to Republicans who worked hard for them.

Don’t believe any text messages or comments saying Burrows does not support Democrat chairs. He says he’ll support the members making the rules. But if a majority of Dems vote for him as speaker, they will also vote for rules that give them chairmanships. So, Burrows can waffle all he wants in his commentary about rules, but the bottom line is that if we get a speaker elected with more Democrat votes than Republican votes, we’ll have Dem chairs, thwarting the will of Republicans across Texas.

Gerdes appeared in all the lists of supporting votes for Dade Phelan until Phelan dropped out. (His mentor, Rick Perry, was hired as an advisor to Dade Phelan in September.) Then Gerdes’ name appeared in all the support lists for replacement Dustin Burrows. Gerdes was one of the “walk-outs” on December 7 when Burrows didn’t win the Republican caucus vote to be the next speaker. He has yet to state his support for the choice of the Republican caucus: David Cook.

Rumor has it that Gerdes (with Perry support) is eyeing higher office.

Congressman Michael Cloud co-signed a letter stating “We urge you to stand with the Texas House Republican Majority and support the Texas House Republican Caucus nominee for Speaker.”

Gov Abbott (who endorsed Gerdes for re-election based on his pro-school choice vote) recently posted on X “I worked this entire year to elect conservative candidates who will pass conservative laws, including school choice. To achieve that goal we need a Texas House Speaker chosen by a majority of Republicans in accordance with the Republican Caucus Rules.”

TexasGOP Chairman Abraham George has called for all House Republicans to support the choice of the Caucus. And, on Saturday, the Bastrop County CEC will meet to decide if they’ll sign on to a letter urging House Republicans to support the will of the Caucus, a letter already signed by over 100 GOP Chairs.

So, does Gerdes heed the advice of conservative Michael Cloud and support the will of the Republican caucus and Republican voters, or does he support Democrat chairs? Does Gerdes heed the advice of Gov Abbott and support the will of the Republican caucus and Republican voters, or does he support Democrat chairs? Does Gerdes support the voices of his constituents and the GOP, or does he support Democrats in power? Will Gerdes stay loyal to Perry and those who join with Democrats to thwart the will of Republican voters?

It seems Stan Gerdes has put himself between a rock and a hard place. We’ll see where his loyalty lies on January 14.

VOTE

Texas offers a lot of opportunities to vote. We have early voting for 2 weeks. Of course, we have election day voting. We have mail-in voting for those over 65 and out of county or state during the election season. We have overseas voting for both military and ex-pats. And, for those who cannot get into the polling place safely, we have curbside voting.

There are no excuses for not voting.

It’s a simple thing to do: express your opinion. Most of us do that at every opportunity. So why don’t people vote? Some think it doesn’t matter, but we’ve seen slim margins in so many races lately, it’s hard to believe people still think their vote doesn’t count.

I think that it’s just that people get busy with their every day lives and forget. I heard just a few days ago that 20% of those who say they’re going to vote on Election Day itself, don’t vote.

So, I got a voter registration list for my precinct. I sorted it by those who voted in the 2020 or 2024 GOP primary. Here in Texas, the list of daily voters is published on the Secretary of State’s website. So, I printed the primary voter list and, if they voted already, I crossed them off the list.

I sent a post card to each voter reminding them to early vote.

Results? Just shy of 50% of those people voted in the next 3 days.

Today, those who still haven’t voted are getting another card to remind them that Tuesday is their last chance.

Let’s hope this works to get out the vote. The future of our country is determined by those who vote. If you stay home because politics isn’t your “thing” or you’re disgusted with the tone of discourse, you have no right to complain if things don’t go the way you had hoped. VOTE!

Conservative? Maybe not.

Online Research Often Exposes The Truth.

MAGA matters and those running for office know it. That’s why candidates, mostly Republican but frankly of both parties, claim to be “conservative”.

Football player tossing a football labeled conservative But, voter beware. Just because they say they’re conservative, they aren’t. They easily toss around the word “conservative” knowing that low-information voters are swayed by it. So, become a high-information voter using online resources!

They hope you don’t do your homework. I hope you do. There are many places to get information about a candidate. Campaign literature and websites are not places to go except to learn what the candidate wants you to know. To get to the truth, you must do some research.

Watch what they do, not what they say. I’ve said this for a long time about candidates, something I’ve learned through my 35+ years involved in political campaigns. People can say anything, but they can’t change the record.

Candidates can modify their social media posts, but few are likely to do that unless their comments become big news. Think of candidates and/or office holders that have been caught by salacious or offensive posts. You can learn a lot by a quick scan of someone’s posts. If they’re on X (formerly known as Twitter), that’s the best place to take a quick scan.

Candidates and office holders likely have to file financial reports with either the local election office or the Texas Ethics Commission or the Federal Elections Commission. Visit BastropVotes for local candidates. Visit the Texas Ethics Commission for district, judicial, or statewide candidates. Texas Ethics also has contributor information about Texas Political Action Committees (PACs). Visit the Federal Elections Commission for all federal candidates. A non-governmental source to “follow the money” is opensecrets.org where you can search by candidate, committee, or by donor. Open Secrets also has information about “dark money” groups, Super PACs and more.

If a candidate is an incumbent, their votes will tell you whether they’re actually a conservative or not. For Texas legislators, Texas Legislature Online is chock full of information. For a Texas legislative ranking, visit Mark Jones’ analysis in the Texas Tribune or The Freedom Index where individual legislators can be searched. For US Congressmen & Senators, visit FreedomWorks for an analysis of their voting records.

For example, my Texas legislator received one 50% ranking. How good is that? Prior to casting my vote, I’ll compare it to other rankings and any opponents. My US Representative has a session ranking of 100%, and a lifetime ranking of 94.4%. I doubt any opponent can beat that!

For those running the first time, keep an eye on their financial reports. “Follow the money” is always true in politics. Search online, especially LinkedIn for bios which will include volunteer and employment histories.

Always look at a candidate’s past voter history. See if it’s published on one of your local GOP club websites. If you can’t find it online, then ask your local GOP chair for the information.

If you can find the name of a candidate’s treasurer or campaign chair, search them as well. People typically take these roles for candidates who are like-minded and who the treasurer and chair want in office. You won’t find too many Republicans serving as campaign chairs or treasurers for liberal democrats, and vice versa.

Your vote is critical to the survival of our nation. If you, like me, consider yourself a conservative and vote accordingly, then do your job. Do your homework. Know before you go!

Be happy!

While the results of the presidential election are still not determined, and the news media has called the race for Democrat Joe Biden, the news across the country for the GOP is excellent. Be happy!

While the results of the presidential election are still not determined, and the news media has called the race for Democrat Joe Biden, the news across the country for the GOP is excellent. Be happy!

Bastrop County GOP swept every contested race in the County. Every GOP candidate won here. Congrats to Mike Gepner on providing the leadership, and hands on work, that a county chairman should. Congrats to Mike and his team on building the network needed to take us forward as a growing county with a growing Republican Party.

Republicans are expected to gain 13 more seats in the US House of Representatives. Current totals are Dems: 215, GOP: 201, Not yet decided: 19. 218 are needed for a majority.

Republicans held all statehouse chambers. And, the GOP gained control of both the NH House and Senate. Redistricting happens after a census year, so in many states, including TX, FL and NC, GOP legislatures will be drawing the maps. Those three states represent more than 80 house seats.

Texans continue to be represented by two Republican US Senators: Senator Ted Cruz and John Cornyn, who handily won re-election. In our own Bastrop County, both Congressman Michael McCaul (CD-10) and Congressman Michael Cloud (CD-27) won re-election.

Let’s talk Texas:

All statewide positions stayed with the GOP.
Nearly all judicial positions remained in GOP hands.
The Texas House continues with a GOP majority: the same split as it had in the 2019 session (83 GOP to 67 Dems).
The Texas Senate continues with a GOP majority. We lost the super majority by one seat, but kept the split nearly what it was in the 2019 session. (19 GOP to 12 Dems in 2019; now 18 GOP to 13 Dems)
Overall, Texas did not lose one GOP Congressional seat and is poised to pick up two, or possibly three, additional seats due to the census. With both the Texas House and Senate firmly in GOP hands, and a Republican governor, the redistricting map, including those two new Congressional districts, will be drawn by the GOP.

There is much to celebrate for the GOP both in Texas and nationwide. Be happy!

What’s the Score?

The score is 14 – 7. We’re losing.

I’m not talking about football. I’m talking about social media and digital communication. The Bastrop County Democrat Party in December (so far) has posted twice as much as the Bastrop County Republican Party. And, they’re on both Instagram and Twitter.

Social media is the preferred communication method for all age groups. Entities must be in these spaces to connect with the public.

The Republican Party website is out of date. The Election Information page showed Nov 4 ballot info as recently as Saturday, December 7. The cutoff date for filing to run for office was December 9. Until mid-day December 8, not one word was on the website about how to do so.

Silence about the new precinct created in Bastrop County last month even though it affects more than 2,000 voters. Nothing about how to register to vote, yet that’s the top priority for TexasGOP. And, the news page’s last article is from June 2, 2018! Its subject? A joint event with the Democrats.

Twitter? The last tweet from the Bastrop County Republican Party was April 25. The Democrats? December 3.

Instagram? (70% of 18 – 29 year olds use Instagram)
The Republican Party doesn’t even have an account. The Democrats last post? November 25.

YouTube? (90% of 18 – 49 year olds use YouTube)
The Republican Party doesn’t even have an account.

“You’re a digital communications expert and a precinct chair. Why don’t you volunteer to fix this,” you might ask. I have. The chair refused my offer. It’s one thing to lose a football game because of poor communication. It’s quite another to lose elections for that reason.